POLLING GURU: DATA POINTS TOWARDS GOVERNMENT BEING CLOSE TO BLACK WEDNESDAY MOMENT
Government’s problems like Black Wednesday in 1992, says Sir John Curtice
Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde said it will likely face consequences at the ballot box
29 September 2022 – for immediate release
POLLING guru Sir John Curtice says the Government’s current economic problems now have echoes of Black Wednesday in 1992 which was followed by a landslide defeat at the polls.
Speaking to GB News, Curtice said it was now impossible not to draw parallels and data suggests there are similarities between the two.
He said: “Right now the $64,000 question is whether or not this will end up being regarded by the public as a fiscal struggle, economic crisis, on a similar scale to the financial crash of 2008-9, and perhaps above all the ERM crisis of 1992.
“In the wake of the ERM crisis, the UK economy grew, the economy had one of its best spells, which then continued under New Labour.
“But that sight of the government having to submit to the judgment of the markets, that the UK could not remain inside the Exchange Rate Mechanism at the level of which the pound was then pegged, just destroyed the Conservatives reputation for economic competence.
“One thing I can say is that so far, the immediate damage to the Conservative’s position in the polls relative to Labour, which is basically, a six point increase in Labour’s lead, is not that far short of the immediate impact of the ERM crisis.”
“That doesn’t prove that there is analogy between the two but bear in mind that if Governments do preside over economic and financial crises, even if they’re not necessarily their fault, they have always found it very, very difficult to escape the consequences of the electoral ballot box.
“At the next election now the Government would like quite reasonably to say we are going to pursue growth, we’re going to achieve growth and indeed if the Government does achieve growth, maybe the events of these few days will be forgotten.
“But there is a risk that there will be a feeling amongst the public…that this government has lost control of the economy, that’s the impression this government badly needs to avoid.”
Sir John added: “We’ve now had four opinion polls that have been conducted wholly or mostly since last Friday’s fiscal event. On average, they put the Labour Party 15 points ahead by 45 to 30.
“That compares with an average Labour lead of nine points in the polls conducted immediately before last Friday. So two points are important .
“One is that the government was already in a relatively poor electoral position before Friday’s event, there was virtually no sign of any bounce for the Conservatives in the wake of Liz Truss’s accession to the Conservative leadership and the keys of 10 Downing Street.
“But secondly, so far at least, the polls indicate that the public have reacted against the financial statement.”
“The standout for me that is that the Labour Party is reckoned now to be about twice as likely as the Conservatives to deliver economic growth and of course, its economic growth that the Conservatives are saying this statement is going to deliver.”
